Joe Kent: Escalation Against Iran & Russia — We Have Entered the Early Stages of World War III

The U.S. lacks a coherent strategy in Iran, oscillating between total surrender demands and limited diplomatic openings, creating unpredictable escalation risks. Assuming Iran will continue incremental retaliation is foolish, as the IRGC now dominates and may escalate to force a U.S. retreat. The U.S. is running low on interceptors and precision munitions, limiting the shelf life of current operations.

A limited U.S. nuclear strike on Iran's nuclear facilities could be pursued to claim victory and exit the war, but it would normalize first-strike nuclear use. Such a strike would likely greenlight Putin to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. Israel might independently use a nuclear weapon against Iran, and the U.S. would still face global blame and political fallout.

Trump's reluctance to withdraw from Iran is driven by pressure from the Israeli lobby and a desire to avoid appearing defeated. Trump could easily claim victory and exit the Middle East, aligning with his campaign rhetoric, but has not done so.

U.S. foreign policy is driven by imperial hubris and a refusal to accept multipolarity, leading to interventions that undermine the dollar and benefit rivals. Maintaining global dominance no longer serves American interests, and strategic thinking is hindered by media shaming of adversary empathy.

Charlie Kirk was strongly opposed to a war with Iran and used his access to Trump to advocate against it. The official lone-gunman narrative is questionable, and his counterterrorism team was shut down before fully investigating foreign ties. Multiple actors, including foreign governments, terrorist groups, and domestic extremists, should be investigated in Kirk's assassination.

The West suffers from normalcy bias and fails to recognize that the Ukraine war is existential for Russia, making escalation likely. Putin faces domestic pressure to end the war decisively and will not accept a proxy war status quo indefinitely.

A U.S. or Israeli nuclear strike in the Middle East would likely trigger Russian nuclear use in Ukraine.

The U.S. intelligence and defense establishments have turned Ukraine into a cash cow, operating on autopilot and resisting presidential directives to de-escalate. Zelensky's government is dependent on Western support and disconnected from the Ukrainian people, functioning as a proxy. Only aggressive presidential micromanagement could wind down the intelligence and military-industrial support to Ukraine.

The interconnected conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine, and with China indicate the early stages of World War III. A window for diplomacy still exists but is closing daily due to the risk of unintended escalation. Withdrawing U.S. forces from the Middle East, restraining Israel, cutting support to Ukraine, and restoring Russia to SWIFT would de-escalate tensions.

The Istanbul Agreement fell apart because Western emissaries instructed Ukraine not to sign, despite Russian willingness to make concessions. Using the Istanbul Accords as a starting point for negotiations is viable, but only if the U.S. credibly withdraws support for Ukraine.