Trita Parsi: Middle East Unraveling — Are We on the Path to World War?

The U.S. believes Iran is trying to destroy Trump's presidency and won't offer real concessions, while Iran sees Trump as unstable and won't give irreversible concessions for a deal he won't honor. The U.S. has made it clear it will not return to the MOU, viewing its exit as lucky, while Iran insists the MOU must be the starting point but is open to a different final agreement.

GCC states cannot defend themselves and rely on outside powers, creating an inherent insecurity that hinders a self-sustained regional security architecture.

Escalation levels may rewrite the region's political geography, with Kuwait and Bahrain facing existential threats and potential government collapse.

The escalation is no longer calibrated or controlled by either side, risking a loss of de-escalatory options and drawing in secondary theaters like Syria.

Iranian strikes will likely move toward Jordan because it serves as Israel's first line of defense and other U.S. bases have been destroyed. Iran may eventually target European bases used by the U.S., viewing itself as already at war with NATO due to European support.

It is plausible that Russia could use Iran to indirectly attack Europe, avoiding direct entanglement while exploiting the unraveling situation.

China may be compelled to mediate if escalation threatens global energy and economic stability, but only if invited by the relevant parties.

Israel is overstretched but will pursue further escalation to capitalize on current U.S. deference, fearing reduced support after 2028. The U.S. kept Israel out of the second round because it distrusted Israel's ability to adhere to controlled escalation levels.

Saudi Arabia faces terrible options, including opening its airspace for U.S. attacks on Iran or lifting the Yemen blockade to end Houthi attacks.

Lifting the Yemen blockade may be the least unattractive option for Saudi Arabia, despite resulting in the loss of Yemen.

The Houthis are extremely popular in the Arab and Muslim world for resisting the U.S. and Israel independently, constraining Turkish or Pakistani intervention.