What the geopolitics podcasts and publications said today, and where they disagree.

The U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes on Tuesday, ending a month-long pause in direct fighting. U.S. Central Command says the operation targeted IRGC forces in response to attempted Iranian attacks on commercial shipping and American service members. President Trump says American forces specifically targeted Iranian radar systems that the regime had been attempting to restore, telling Fox News that Washington waited until the systems were almost rebuilt before striking them. Iran fired back with missiles and drones several hours after the U.S. strikes, activating air raid sirens in Jordan. The Revolutionary Guard claims it shot down another American MQ-9 Reaper drone, though the U.S. has not confirmed that claim. Before Iran retaliated, Trump warned that any response would result in the country being hit again at a much harder and higher level, adding that an even larger attack was waiting in the wings. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian offered to return to the June memorandum of understanding that called for an immediate ceasefire and 60 days of negotiations. Trump dismissed that possibility, telling Fox News that an agreement with the Iranian regime is not worth the paper it's written on.

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Germany formally accuses Russia of targeting a Ukrainian cargo plane with explosive-laden drones at Leipzig/Halle Airport. Berlin's interior minister says investigators recognized the same engineering seen in other Russian hybrid operations and concluded Russia is responsible. Germany is retaliating by closing Russia's consulate in Bonn, tightening entry restrictions for Russian nationals, and terminating the agreement governing the Russia House in Berlin. Berlin also wants the EU to sanction additional Russians connected to hybrid attacks. Separately, authorities in Brandenburg say specially designed rockets carrying conductive material were fired into extra-high-voltage power lines, causing two short circuits. Investigators found debris of numerous explosive devices and are considering both foreign involvement and possible domestic extremists. A fire broke out at a Polish drone production facility supplying the Ukrainian military, with officials believing it was deliberately set. Poland's interior minister says everything indicates an act of sabotage, and prosecutors are investigating foreign intelligence involvement.

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Leaked documents reveal Russia is secretly helping Iran develop supersonic cruise missiles capable of threatening U.S. warships in the Middle East. The program, called C-430L, reportedly began in 2023 and centers on mastering ramjet engine technology, with Russian engineers assisting Iran after a test flight exposed serious propulsion problems. Iran is reportedly pursuing a two-track strategy to acquire supersonic anti-ship capabilities: seeking finished weapons from China for immediate capability while using Russian engineers to develop indigenous production knowledge over the long term. This exchange mirrors Iran's supply of Shahed drones to Russia for use in Ukraine. Putin reportedly signaled a strategy of supplying comparable weapons to countries capable of striking sensitive Western targets in response to Western long-range weapons provided to Ukraine. He recently told Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian that Russia is trying to give Iran the help it needs in this difficult period.

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A Reuters investigation shows China is rapidly developing satellites capable of pursuing, capturing, and potentially disabling other spacecraft, including testing orbital maneuvers and refueling technology. U.S. officials describe Chinese satellites engaging in orbital dogfighting, and Chinese patent documents describe autonomous pursuit and multi-satellite capture concepts. U.S. military leaders argue Washington must prepare to threaten or strike hostile spacecraft, not just defend American satellites, as space has already been weaponized. The U.S. conducted its first known joint military operation in space with Britain, maneuvering a satellite near a Chinese experimental satellite as a deliberate message to Beijing.

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Army Secretary Dan Driscoll has submitted his resignation after 18 months on the job, following months of tension with Secretary of War Pete Hegseth over Army leadership and modernization efforts. Driscoll pushed the Army to purchase inexpensive weapons more quickly and expand drone capabilities. Hegseth abruptly fired Army Chief of Staff General Randy George and removed the commander of Army Forces in Europe and Africa. Reuters reports that Hegseth viewed Driscoll as a threat inside the Pentagon and had wanted him removed for some time.

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The SCO summit advanced Eurasian economic integration, with Iran proposing an SCO Development Bank that Russia has agreed to support, and an SCO energy consortium to stabilize oil and gas prices among major producers. Iran and Russia have pushed for an SCO Development Bank with statutes designed to bypass the U.S. dollar entirely. Putin claims that roughly 98-99% of Russian trade with SCO partners already bypasses the dollar in favor of local currencies. Western mainstream media coverage of the summit was essentially absent, with Europeans absent from Kyrgyzstan and largely set to skip the Vladivostok forum and even the upcoming BRICS summit in New Delhi. Pepe Escobar argues it is highly significant that Iranian President Pezeshkian met face-to-face with both Xi and Putin at the summit, asserting Iran has substantial support from Russia and China at several levels.

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