Obama's Campaign Manager's 2028 Scouting Report

Democrats' strong political position is almost entirely attributable to Donald Trump's weak position and the fact that Republicans are in power. Frontline candidates must convince undecided voters they offer a positive alternative, not just an anti-Republican vote.

National Democrats should stay quiet and let individual candidates prosecute their own cases to avoid complicating the environment.

Democrats have not fixed their acute brand problems and should not get overly confident after the midterms. The party must strengthen its brand over the next decade to reliably win more elections and sustain control of the White House and Senate.

The new early state calendar is the most consequential primary shakeup in decades and will decide the nomination.

Candidates must survive South Carolina, build momentum through Nevada and New Hampshire, and exit Virginia as the frontrunner to secure a delegate advantage heading into Super Tuesday.

The black vote is crucial because delegates are apportioned by congressional district, allowing candidates who win large shares to accumulate delegates efficiently. Endorsements no longer generate votes; candidates must earn support through performance and communication.

Charisma, talent, and the ability to communicate effectively through modern media are the most important political assets for 2028 candidates. Voters are desperate for something new and performance in short-form video and daily content is more critical than policy plans or past electoral wins.

Jon Ossoff is a talented, clear, and courageous communicator who is capturing attention, but the presidential primary is brutal and early missteps can be fatal. Ossoff's success in Georgia is a strong credential, but national performance and daily content will ultimately determine viability.

If AOC believes she would be a good president, she should run now rather than wait, noting she has the broadest performance skill set and a ready volunteer base.

The donor class's focus on electability is misplaced and voters may desire maximum political instability given the current economy.

Kamala Harris will make a responsible decision about running, recognizing that voters want something new and that her frontrunner status would likely erode over time. While Harris would start in an enviable position, especially with South Carolina first, the likelihood of voters wanting a rerun is not high.