Will Trump's Postal Service Seize This Mail Bag?

The midterms will reveal if there is a progressive penalty and how much DSA or left candidates underperform the national average.

The election is hoped to be democratic, but winners may wrongly claim their strategies are correct because it is easier to learn from losses.

He is interested in testing new relational organizing and field strategies to measure their efficacy.

The midterms will show whether center-left candidates running as non-Democrats can compete and what the Democratic brand's standing is.

He wants to see how close Democrats will be to a trifecta if they win the White House in 2028 and how important John Fetterman becomes.

He is interested in turnout, enthusiasm, which demographics swing back, Texas's performance, and whether new states become competitive. He wants to see Trump's approval in exits, Republican drop-off from 2022, and the formula of any surprising Republican winners. Elections like this can reveal the next states to come onto the presidential map, as 2006 Senate wins in Virginia and Indiana foreshadowed 2008.

The penalty for skipping debates has diminished as traditional media's power to hold candidates accountable drains, but the opportunity cost is higher because debates are the best chance to break through.

Darlene Graham won despite a terrible debate answer, and Katie Hobbs won after dodging debates, suggesting debates may not matter.

Texas is the most interesting case because the race is tied, yet Ken Paxton refuses to debate despite being a poor defender of his record.

Democrats must pick fights and pass message bills to underscore differences, rather than just having a message or policy, to build a platform for 2028.

Voters likely realize Trump is still president and no change will happen, making it a harm-avoidance midterm, with delivery problems arriving in 2028.

The key issue is who will own the failure over the next two years, especially regarding budget bills and potential government shutdowns.

Congressional majorities in divided government cannot take real ownership of the economy unless they shut down the government destructively.

The 2028 open primaries on both sides will suck oxygen out of the air, making Congress a backdrop.

Tension will focus 100% on the Republican primary successor to Trump and the Democratic primary, with Congress as a backdrop.

If Trump vetoes budget bills lacking Pentagon funding increases, Democrats will face thorny fights over war funding and start to own things.

Democrats lack the money for a national campaign, but could run targeted national ads during high-leverage moments like football games to tie Republicans to Trump on cost of living.

A real national media buy targeting swing voters on niche channels is doable to drive issue salience, though linear TV has diminishing returns.

Targeted spending to drive an issue with a specific group spread across districts is relatively cost-inefficient.

Ads could highlight Trump's data center comments and link Republican votes for the bill to Medicaid cuts and AI tax cuts, but massive GOP outspending makes this difficult.

The 2012 Big Bird ad attacked Romney for defunding PBS by portraying Big Bird as a criminal mastermind.

The Mike Gravel rock ad features him staring silently, throwing a rock, and walking away, and he notes the teens who ran Gravel's Twitter now work at OpenAI.

The Mitt Romney singing 'America the Beautiful' ad is the best of the Obama era, using sound effects and headlines about outsourcing to nail the election message.

The Hillary Clinton 3 a.m. ad was effective in the strength plus experience equals change era.

The John McCain computer ad was a pet project that backfished when it was revealed he couldn't use a keyboard due to torture injuries.

The George W. Bush wolves ad is chilling and relies on misinformation by implying John Kerry didn't support security funding after 9/11, when it was actually about the 1993 bombing.

Nick Fuentes and the grouper right wing have been normalized within the Republican Party, and James Fishback's candidacy embodies this growing audience. A conservative journalist believes 40% of MAGA staffers are groypers, and Democrats should not paint all Republicans or young men as fringe nuts. The radicalism is not unique to the U.S., with far-right parties gaining significant support among young men in Germany and the EU.

Democrats should create political costs for Republicans associating with far-right groups while addressing issues like anti-establishment thinking and anti-immigrant sentiment.

Democrats should just use these people's own extreme words, like Fishback's 'white genocide' and 'goy slop' comments, rather than editorializing or labeling.

The path to online right-wing extremism leads to misery and loneliness, and getting people to engage with the world reveals how terrible those views are.

Democrats should not talk about foreign policy, as voters tune it out during financial crises and it is politically risky.

Democrats must take back the mantle of being the anti-war party, rebuild USAID smartly, and develop a trade agenda that repeals Trump's tariffs.

It would be politically useful to talk about foreign policy, restoring respect for America, and ending stupid wars, similar to 2008.

Foreign policy will matter in the campaign due to the war in Iran, and Democrats must meet a threshold of experience to be believed on the issue.

The show aims to get listeners involved in politics as activists, knocking on doors and donating, not just talking about the news.

The audience does not always agree with itself or the hosts, and the show provides a necessary space for productive intraparty conversations that mainstream media does not.

Aspiring speechwriters should volunteer to write regional op-eds and statements, as doing so can lead to junior jobs on Capitol Hill.

New grads should take any campaign job available, work hard, and prove themselves rather than demanding policy or speechwriting roles immediately.

The Crooked Dozen targets the worst Republican incumbents, like Miller-Meeks, to create a governing majority by flipping seats others aren't focusing on. Andy Ogles and Chuck Edwards left the list after Ogles lost his primary and Edwards faced a harassment scandal, and the audience voted to add David Valadao and Gabe Evans.

Traditional tactics like door-knocking, calls, and texts are less effective due to ring cameras, spam filters, and caller ID, so VSA is focusing on relational organizing and online engagement. VSA will train volunteers to map their networks to target districts and share information in group chats and online to reach people who don't pay attention to politics.