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Fyodor Lukyanov: Russia's Strategy as the World Order Collapses

16 August 2026 · 44m

What was discussed

Ukraine war diplomacy and escalation1:36

Fyodor Lukyanov says the Anchorage meeting failed to produce a diplomatic solution, and that European-backed Ukrainian escalation aimed to convince Trump that Kyiv could resist rather than concede territory. He states that mutual escalation has pushed both sides further from a ceasefire and that the war is likely to intensify in the immediate months.

European unity and Russian threat narrative8:55

Lukyanov argues Europeans are treating permanent confrontation with Russia as the core of a renewed European identity, echoing Cold War integration around a Soviet threat. He claims that neither Kyiv nor European capitals are currently interested in anything but a protracted war, despite internal divisions.

Europe's declining global role16:44

Lukyanov contends that Europe's global influence will objectively decline in the coming years and that confrontation with Russia is the only arena where European leaders can pretend to a major international role. He notes this strategy is unconvincing globally and compares it to post-imperial British tactics.

Russia hardening stance amid NATO expansion22:28

Lukyanov says a freeze now would be a strategic failure for Russia because NATO has expanded and Ukraine is de facto integrated, worsening Europe's security landscape against Moscow. He frames the conflict as part of a broader Eurasian reshuffle requiring Russia to strengthen its international positioning by all available means.

Iran war lessons for great power conflicts30:54

Lukyanov argues Iran's effective resistance demonstrates that a weaker state can inflict significant harm on a stronger aggressor through immediate, inevitable responses. He suggests Iran's survival would allow Russia to regain Middle East influence via its ties with Tehran and notes the political costs of non-victory for Trump.

Collapse of post-Cold War institutions39:43

Lukyanov states that he does not foresee a new European security framework emerging because confrontation and hatred between Russia and Europe are too entrenched. He warns that global institutions like the UN are becoming obsolete and that a new world order is unlikely to materialize within his lifetime.