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Ray McGovern: Russia-Japan Tensions Grow & U.S. Involvement in Attacks on Russia

15 August 2026 · 53m

Ray McGovern argues that Russia's current strategy is defined by extreme caution driven by the unpredictability of U.S. leadership and the deep state's autonomous actions. He posits that while Russia maintains military pressure in Ukraine and signals strength in disputes like the Kuril Islands, it avoids broader escalations that could provoke a nuclear response from an unstable U.S. or Israel.

What was discussed

Russia-Japan Kuril Islands Dispute3:50

Ray McGovernassertion
Putin visited the Kurils to demonstrate Russia's strength and signal that Japan lacks leverage, especially after the U.S. moved missiles away from Japan.
Glenn Diesenassertion
The U.S. historically blocked a 1956 peace treaty to maintain its regional alliance system.

U.S. Support for Ukrainian Strikes22:56

Glenn Diesenassertion
Lavrov formally requested U.S. evidence of involvement in strikes deep inside Russia, implying the U.S. is participating in acts of war.
Ray McGovernopinion
Russian leaders are adopting a harder line due to U.S. actions, but Putin remains cautious because he believes Trump cannot fully control the U.S. intelligence and defense establishment.

Deep State Influence on U.S. Policy26:57

Ray McGovernspeculation
The U.S. deep state acts independently of Trump, potentially orchestrating drone attacks on Putin's residence without his knowledge.

Nuclear Escalation Risks with Israel and Iran43:07

Ray McGovernassertion
The probability of nuclear weapon use is higher now than at any point since WWII, and Putin is actively advising Iran to avoid actions that could trigger a U.S. or Israeli nuclear response.
Glenn Diesenopinion
Dismissing nuclear possibilities increases the risk of their use; European leaders incorrectly label nuclear deterrence as blackmail.

German Economic Subservience to the U.S.50:21

Ray McGovernopinion
Germany's refusal to utilize available Nord Stream gas demonstrates a sheepish subservience to U.S. interests akin to political submission in the 1930s.

Putin's Caution Regarding Trump6:44

Ray McGovernassertion
Putin's primary concern is Trump's unpredictability and declining health, leading him to intervene only to stop specific U.S. escalations.

Potential Russian Escalation in Ukraine35:10

Ray McGovernspeculation
There is a 50-50 probability that Putin will deploy the Oreshnik missile against targets in Kiev to deter NATO while avoiding Article 5 triggers.