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Alastair Crooke: Iran & Russia Give Up on Diplomacy & Go on the Offensive

13 August 2026 · 53m

Crooke argues throughout that Iran and Russia have each concluded, from repeated experience of what they see as Western bad faith (fraudulent deals, deceptive ceasefire talks, market manipulation, and covert attacks on civilians), that diplomacy with Washington and Europe is no longer viable, so both are shifting from negotiation toward hardened, escalatory postures rather than capitulation. He and Diesen contend that Western policymakers and elites systematically misjudge this shift—assuming economic pressure and missile pressure will produce capitulation—while European publics and institutions remain in a 'bunker,' avoiding debate about the risks of an escalation they no longer control.

What was discussed

Iran's leadership hardens against negotiation3:44

Crooke says Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued a tougher restatement of its pre-Islamabad principles, coinciding with a leadership change giving Rezaei (a Supreme Leader appointee) a vote over the outgoing Pezeshkian-aligned secretary. He argues this signals a consolidated hardline vision: Iran will not seek a deal with Trump and may be prepared to sustain conflict for years, responding to US economic-pressure tactics by continuing to strike tankers.

US miscalculations on inventories and oil manipulation6:09

Crooke argues the US made a first major error by not properly checking weapons inventories before starting the war, apparently assuming a short four-day conflict. He says a second mistake is Treasury Secretary Besant's reassurance that oil markets can be managed, when in his view the real supply of middle distillates like diesel and kerosene is scarce regardless of manipulated price signals.

Pressure on Hezbollah and Hashad backfires regionally8:44

Crooke describes US/Saudi pressure tactics — pushing to disarm Hezbollah in Lebanon and attacking Iraq's Hashad (PMU) militia during a pilgrimage period — as serial miscalculations. He asserts the Hashad are staunch Iraqi nationalists rather than simple Iranian proxies, and that the attacks (whose justification Saudi Arabia gave but the Hashad deny) have provoked promised reprisals rather than weakening Iran's regional network.

Iran's economic resilience versus Besant's pressure strategy14:07

Crooke asserts Iran pre-positioned oil and tankers before the war, has sold 80 million barrels since, and continues selling to China, putting it slightly ahead of budget rather than facing imminent collapse. He argues any real Iranian economic pressure is likely months away, and warns that if Iran ever faced an existential choice, it would choose escalation over capitulation, citing the Supreme Leader's recent military appointments as evidence.

Saudi oil collapse, Hormuz standoff, and US treasury bailout19:02

Crooke contrasts Trump's claim that the Strait of Hormuz is open with Besant's claim it's irrelevant because oil can be rerouted underground, calling both examples of empty reassurance while shipping in the region remains effectively paralyzed. He states Saudi Arabia's oil production has fallen 74%, it needs $100 oil to balance its budget, and with Besant blocking Treasury sales, the US may have to bail Riyadh out via a treasury swap arrangement similar to Japan's.

Israel's political crisis and West Bank escalation strategy22:52

Crooke describes a widening divide in Israel between secular Ashkenazi Israelis and a more messianic, hardline religious-nationalist bloc, with polling showing a rightward shift that isn't translating into seats for parties like Likud, Ben-Gvir's and Smotrich's factions. He says these figures are calling for an intifada or action at Al-Aqsa to win the election, and that Netanyahu — who may face prison if he loses power — is restructuring institutions to avoid conceding, while settlers already attack West Bank villages and the army prepares to move into refugee camps there.

Yemen-Saudi war, Iraqi militancy, and Netanyahu's infrastructure demand25:11

Netanyahu (quoted by Crooke)clip
Presses the US to destroy Iran's infrastructure so the state cannot provide services to its population
Alastair Crookeopinion
Characterizes this infrastructure-destruction demand as effectively a slow-acting nuclear bomb given summer conditions

Risk of the Ukraine-Russia war merging with the Iran conflict32:11

Glenn Diesenspeculation
Questions whether some in Washington deliberately want to merge the Ukraine and Iran wars
Alastair Crookeopinion
Argues US belief that it fully controls escalation is a hubristic and dangerous miscalculation
Glenn Diesenopinion
Argues Western pressure campaigns are hardening rather than softening Russia's and Iran's positions since both see themselves in existential fights with no room for capitulation

Moscow restaurant bombing as a potential tipping point35:12

Crooke describes an assassination at an Italian restaurant beneath a Moscow high-rise, where a bomb disguised as a wedding gift killed two senior Air Force generals attending a reception. He speculates, without direct evidence, that Russia will likely conclude a Western intelligence service facilitated the attack, and warns this pattern of strikes on civilian and now social targets could push Russia toward much harsher retaliation rather than the war-weariness the West intends to provoke.

Russia-US and Iran-West diplomatic breakdown; Europe's bunker mentality39:50

Alastair Crookeassertion
Russia now treats the Alaska talks as a deceit and has effectively ended negotiations with Washington, paralleling Iran's stance
Marco Rubio (quoted by Crooke)clip
Claims continued missile strikes will pressure Putin into serious ceasefire negotiations
Glenn Diesenopinion
Argues Europe lacks any real public debate about these risks and has failed as a geopolitical actor, evidenced by having no influence with Russia, China, or the US