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Seyed M. Marandi: Iran-Oman Hormuz Deal Almost Reached & the Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan Defence Pact

09 August 2026 · 53m

What was discussed

Iran attacks on Strait of Hormuz shipping

Iran has been targeting UAE tankers and blocking oil and goods exports from the Persian Gulf without its consent, alongside Yemeni forces blocking Saudi ships in the Red Sea and striking the Jezan refinery. These actions are worsening a global energy crisis and putting pressure on Gulf economies dependent on continuous consumption and imports.

Iran's military resilience and strategy against the US

During the 39-40 day war, no underground Iranian military bases were destroyed, demonstrating Iran's 21st century warfare approach compared to what is described as an outdated US strategy. Iran kept key assets like missile bases, factories, and command centers protected underground while systematically destroying exposed US and allied assets in the region.

Iran's MOU demands and negotiating position

Iran's Supreme National Security Council reinforced demands under the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), including full compensation, ending the blockade, and resolution of conflicts in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen, and Iraq. These are described as not new demands but a maximization of existing MOU terms, sending a signal that Iran will not compromise on its negotiating position with the United States.

Economic ripple effects of the war on Gulf states and the US

Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports to the US reportedly dropped to zero in July, and Gulf states are expected to withdraw funds and sell US bonds to sustain their economies amid the ongoing conflict. This threatens the petrodollar system and US tech/AI industry funding, with wider destabilizing effects on Saudi Arabia's economy and its financial relationship with Washington.

Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan defense pact

The newly formed defense pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan is assessed as primarily a response to Saudi Arabia's weakened position due to Yemen's strikes, rather than a broader anti-Iran alliance. The pact is viewed as unlikely to significantly affect Yemen's military capabilities or the resistance axis, given Pakistan's prior financial arrangements with Saudi Arabia and Turkey's military sales interests, with no similar mobilization occurring over Gaza, Lebanon, or the West Bank.

Historical context: US post-Cold War hegemony and decline

The 1991 Gulf War victory and Soviet collapse created US arrogance that led to overextension and eventual decline, worsened by the Iraq invasion and 9/11. Iran's support for resistance movements in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, coordinated partly through General Soleimani, contributed to US failures and forced American withdrawal from the region at massive financial and political cost.

Iran's support for Russia and links to Ukraine war

Iran supported Russia during the Ukraine war partly because it viewed NATO expansion toward Georgia and potentially Armenia/Azerbaijan as a direct threat to its own security given Turkey's NATO membership. This support helped deplete NATO military assets sent to Ukraine, weakening NATO economically and militarily while indirectly benefiting Iran's own military capabilities.

Yemen's historical and current military resilience

Yemen has a history of resisting stronger foreign powers, including defeating Egyptian intervention in the 1960s under Nasser, which is compared to Vietnam for Egypt. Currently, Yemen is described as stronger than during the earlier Saudi-led war, while Saudi Arabia has weakened, undermining any renewed campaign against Yemen by the Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan pact.

US allies' weakening legitimacy and regional public opinion

US regional proxies lack popular mandates, and their alliance against Yemen would be viewed negatively since Yemen is seen as defending Gaza by blockading the Red Sea against Israel. Public opinion across the region reportedly recognizes the axis of resistance as the primary defender of Palestinian and Lebanese interests, increasing pressure on allied governments as US power diminishes.

Iran-Oman deal on the Strait of Hormuz

Negotiations between Iran and Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz are reported to be nearly complete or already finalized, including fees for passage contrary to claims by US Vice President Vance. Iran is holding back finalizing the agreement until broader MOU issues, including the US blockade and reparations, are resolved, and is prepared for the possibility that the US may resume fighting.

Potential mechanisms for MOU compliance and reparations

Discussion of possible financial models that would allow compensation and unfreezing of Iranian assets without directly violating US sanctions laws, potentially using regional financial channels rather than direct government-to-government transfers. Key Iranian demands include returning Lebanese territory, halting Israeli actions in Gaza and the West Bank, and returning stolen Iranian assets.

Domestic US political obstacles to a deal with Iran

Trump's political history of criticizing the JCPOA and Obama's unfreezing of Iranian assets creates domestic political difficulty in accepting a similar or more generous deal with Iran now. Despite this, Iran's position is described as strengthened compared to before the war, giving it leverage to hold out for its preferred terms over an unspecified timeframe.

Strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz battle

The battle for control over the Strait of Hormuz is characterized as the most significant confrontation in the region, more consequential than direct strikes on Israel, because a US defeat there constitutes a defeat for Israel as well. Iran's destruction of radar and defense installations built to protect Israel across the Gulf region and its coordination with Yemen's Bab al-Mandab operations amplified the pressure on the US and its allies.

US decline narrative and Saudi nuclear negotiations

The war has undermined the myth of American military and economic power, contributing to political polarization and moral criticism of Western elites both domestically and internationally. Separately, US negotiations with Saudi Arabia over nuclear technology have included demands that Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel, with Iran noting it had long offered Saudi Arabia enrichment technology without such preconditions, highlighting inconsistent US treatment of allies versus Iran.