Joe Kent: Israel, Syria & Saudi Lose Ground & U.S. Must Exit the Region

The only feasible solution in Yemen is for the Saudis to cut deals with the Houthis, who are a confederation of northern tribes galvanized by recent battlefield success.

MBS is pursuing a military solution due to internal political pressure, despite Yemen's mountainous terrain making foreign conquest impossible.

The U.S. should recognize Ansarallah as the government of northern Yemen, lift sanctions and the blockade, and do business with them, similar to the deal cut with Al-Shara in Syria.

Recognizing Ansarallah would remove Iranian leverage, as they have no history of attacking the U.S. homeland and only defend their territory.

Continued military pressure could lead Ansarallah to restrict oil flow through the Bab al-Mandeb and launch missiles toward Sinai, causing severe economic damage.

Adversaries currently hold more leverage than the U.S., as military strikes only provide more targets for Houthi counterattacks.

American national security circles are almost incapable of triaging and prioritizing realistic goals over maximalist desires, clinging to a cartoonish idea of American exceptionalism. Current administration forces have captured Trump's thinking and abandoned the pragmatic deal-making approach he used for the Doha Accords.

Fuel shortages and protests in Idlib threaten Al-Shara's administration, which is caught between Turkish and Israeli pressures.

Israeli or hardline elements could assassinate Al-Shara, triggering chaos and an ISIS resurgence that would draw the U.S. back into conflict.

If Al-Shara is removed, Turkey would intervene militarily, prompting Israeli action and creating a chaotic multi-front conflict.

Iraqi PMF movements to the Syrian border indicate regional actors are preparing for instability, and Israel might welcome a fragmented Syria to maintain control.

Israel is at war with all its neighbors and internally, driven by Netanyahu's political model of perpetual conflict to retain power ahead of elections.

Israeli actions, including West Bank settlement expansion, undermine long-term survival and U.S. support will likely diminish after upcoming elections.

The Haaretz report that the UAE warned Netanyahu about the October 7th attacks, which were ignored, highlights a major intelligence failure. Netanyahu uses perpetual crisis to avoid accountability for intelligence failures, similar to the U.S. post-9/11 narrative.

Israel's ability to wage constant war depends entirely on U.S. support, and upcoming political shifts in America will end the blank check.

The NDAA has legally intertwined U.S. and Israeli capabilities, but removing those provisions would force Israel to behave more like other regional nations.

The Gaza deal was largely a headline and Israeli operations continue daily, serving as a rallying cry for regional tensions. The Likud party aims to annex the West Bank and expel Palestinians, modeling their approach on the Gaza campaign.

Trump's assumption that Iran will remain static and wait for post-midterm strikes is dangerously flawed, as Iran has shown it will escalate preemptively.

Iran may launch a drastic attack in late September or October to hurt Trump politically, denying him escalation dominance.

Gulf partners are realizing U.S. security guarantees have become liabilities, exposing them to Iranian retaliation.

Gulf states are beginning to make independent security arrangements and will eventually cut deals with Iran regardless of U.S. objections.

MBS is hoping for a U.S. silver bullet to resolve the Yemen conflict, but the U.S. lacks critical targeting data that would guarantee success.

MBS will feel betrayed when the U.S. cannot deliver, forcing Saudi Arabia to eventually cut deals with Ansarallah independently.

Iran will inevitably acquire a nuclear weapon as a self-fulfilling prophecy driven by U.S. regime change actions against non-nuclear states like Iraq and Libya.

Iran's leadership will conclude a nuclear deterrent is the only way to prevent future invasions, mirroring North Korea's security model.