John Mearsheimer (FIXED AUDIO): Ukraine May Cease to Exist — The Coming Ugly Victory

The Russian economy is in quite good shape and sanctions have not caused significant visible trouble in major cities.

If Putin were removed from office, his replacement would likely be a hardliner even tougher on the Ukraine war.

Russia's escalated air campaign targeting ports, energy, and logistics since June is significantly affecting Ukraine's economy and battlefield sustainability.

Ukraine is committing national suicide, with its population halved since independence and a demographic death spiral making recovery impossible.

Ukraine's population is now half of what it was at independence, with half of the remaining population of retirement age and four times as many people dying as are being born.

A broad peace deal was worked out before the Anchorage summit but collapsed because Trump failed to get European and Ukrainian agreement.

Russia and the U.S. had worked out a deal involving territorial compromises before Anchorage, but the Europeans and Ukrainians opposed it.

Russians do not intensely hate Ukrainians due to shared heritage, but harbor deep animosity toward Europeans.

NATO expansion into Ukraine and Georgia was a bridge too far that triggered wars, unlike earlier expansions into Poland and the Baltics.

Poland welcomed the war in Ukraine to make it the frontline state and secure deeper American involvement, but this strategy would backfire.

The United States and Europe bear principal responsibility for Ukraine's destruction because they drove NATO expansion and refused to settle the war.