John Mearsheimer: Ukraine May Cease to Exist — The Coming Ugly Victory

The Russian economy is in good shape and sanctions have not caused significant visible trouble beyond some gas station lines. Elite dissatisfaction with Putin has withered since he took the gloves off and escalated the air campaign in June 2026.

If Putin were removed, his successor would likely be a hardliner even tougher on waging the Ukraine war.

Lavrov and the Russian elite see Ukraine and NATO as an existential threat and require a settlement that greatly weakens Ukraine. Russians are confident they will win, but the exact territorial endgame is unclear because it depends on how the war plays out militarily. The incentive structure pushes Russia to take lots of territory and ensure the rump Ukrainian state is weak and dysfunctional.

Russia has escalated its air war since June 2026 by shutting down Black Sea ports and destroying Ukrainian energy and logistical infrastructure. The air war is severely damaging Ukraine's economy and military supply lines, making it harder to sustain frontline positions. Ukraine is desperate for funds and cannot defend itself against Russian missiles and drones, while Russia's industrial base continues to produce weapons independently.

Yulia Mendel claims Ukraine's population has halved since independence, with half of the remaining population of retirement age and four times as many people dying as being born.

Ukraine is committing national suicide, a disaster exacerbated by Western support for continuing the war. People who have supported continuing the war to use Ukraine as a battering ram against Russia bear great responsibility for this outcome.

A broad compromise deal was worked out between Trump, Witkoff, and Putin before the August 2025 Anchorage summit, but the Europeans and Ukrainians opposed it.

The West, especially the United States, bears principal responsibility for Ukraine's current situation because it pushed for NATO expansion and failed to secure a settlement. Ukraine would have been much better off accepting the Anchorage terms than continuing the war.

Russians have little animosity toward Americans but deep loathing for Europeans, especially the British and Germans.

Russians do not intensely hate Ukrainians due to shared heritage and intermingling, which could have facilitated a modus vivendi with smarter diplomacy.

Russians loathe Zelensky and those they identify as Nazis, but not the Ukrainian nation as a whole.

NATO expansion into Poland and the Baltic states was accepted by Russia, but bringing Ukraine and Georgia into the alliance was a bridge too far that triggered wars. Viktor Orbán correctly predicted that making Ukraine a frontline state would backfire because Russia views NATO in Ukraine as an existential threat. The Poles welcomed the war because they thought it would strengthen their security by making Ukraine the frontline state and drawing in more American forces.