Steve Jermy: End of U.S. Military Primacy - New Strategic Thinking Requried

Industrial production, energy, and strategic competence are the three foundational factors of national power, not GDP. Russia is outproducing the whole of the West in terms of 155 millimeter shells. Germany is deindustrializing by shutting itself off from cheap Russian natural gas. The West lacks competence in the capacity to think and act strategically, evidenced by defeats in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, and pending defeats in Ukraine and Iran.

The West is unable to defend itself against sustained strategic bombardment by drones and missiles. The U.S. has been pushed further west in Iran, with bases damaged and carriers pushed back, meaning American airpower and naval forces cannot be used safely. The end of U.S. hegemony is here because it can no longer deploy power at a time and place of its choosing.

The Taliban and Viet Cong defeated stronger Western forces because they believed more in their cause and were prepared to pay a higher blood price. A relatively small level of U.S. casualties in the Iran war is a very significant political issue in the United States.

The West outsourced industrial production in the 1990s to focus on tech, finance, and services, losing its industrial might.

The West was guided by the Chicago School of economists and the financial sector, which led to outsourcing military production.

Iran and Russia can defeat the U.S. by making cheap missiles and drones, without needing a traditional air force or navy.

Western leaders must conduct deep inquiries into strategic failures and replace incompetent political and military leadership.

The West should extract as quickly and humanely as possible from the wars in Ukraine and Iran.

An unfolding energy and economic shock will force Europeans to the negotiating table and trigger self-reflection.

NATO has failed because it did not prevent war in Europe and cannot support Ukraine to win.

Europe should base its security on the OSCE and an integrated approach, listening to Russia's calls for a common European home.

The U.S. ranks Europe fifth in its national security priorities and wants Europe to organize its own defense.

Recognizing that Russia or Iran is winning or has legitimate security concerns is labeled pro-adversary, making objective strategic analysis impossible.

Western politics is encumbered by narrative and spin, preventing realistic assessment of the balance of power.

China and Russia are the two critical countries on the World Island, and their relationship is not one of junior partnership.

Nations on the geographical periphery of the World Island must engage with Russia and China through trade and practicality, not values.

Mackinder's ideas influenced U.S. Cold War strategy to prevent a Eurasian hegemon, but NATO expansion broke with offshore balancing and provoked the current conflict.

The balance of power has shifted, resulting in a strong and unified Russian-Chinese hegemony on the World Island.

Europe must establish solid working relationships with Russia and China and accept that it is no longer a strong area of the world.

The U.S. will struggle to regain military power as China cuts off critical rare earth minerals.