Paul Craig Roberts: Putin's Mistake - Letting the West Attack Russia

Trump's domestic goals have been derailed by Netanyahu, who is using the U.S. to pursue a "Greater Israel" agenda against Iran. The ongoing conflict is unpopular domestically and poses a significant electoral risk to Trump and the Republicans.

Trump's tariff strategy is foolish and will be compounded by massive AI-driven layoffs. Sanctions and asset seizures are causing foreign central banks to reduce their holdings of U.S. Treasury debt, which threatens the dollar.

Major U.S. foreign policy organizations are now admitting defeat in Iran and calling for a retreat from global hegemony. The neoconservative hold on American foreign policy is cracking, as evidenced by establishment figures speaking against the narrative.

Trump may lash out with nuclear weapons or give Israel a green light if he becomes too frustrated to accept defeat.

A hypothetical alliance including Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan could neutralize Israeli expansion by controlling oil and strategic waterways.

The Mecca Alliance is likely an illusion because the member states are pursuing individual interests rather than mutual defense.

The petrodollar system is less critical to U.S. power than the willingness of foreign central banks to hold U.S. debt as reserves.

The traditional U.S. goal of controlling Middle Eastern oil flows has been overshadowed by the war for "Greater Israel."

Trump's desire to end the war in Ukraine was blocked by the military-security complex, which needs a Russian enemy to justify its budget. The president's power is often overestimated because administrations are filled with officials serving their own careers and powerful interests.

Netanyahu might orchestrate an event to force the American public to accept the use of nuclear weapons against Iran.

Public discussion of the possibility of nuclear escalation could serve as a protective constraint against it happening.

Putin has allowed the war to widen by refusing to use sufficient conventional force to stop Ukraine. Putin's redefinition of attacks as "terrorism" rather than war has eroded Russian deterrence and made Europe comfortable with attacking Russia.

Iran risks making the same mistake as Russia by fighting a U.S. proxy while Israel, the actual enemy, pays no cost. Fighting proxies while the true enemy remains unscathed is dangerous because it allows the conflict to expand until a major power is forced to escalate.

Upcoming Russian elections could force a change in Putin's war strategy if his party performs poorly.

Older Russians feel a loss of respect and fear compared to the Soviet era, which could drive internal pressure for a policy adjustment. The conflict's duration, twice as long as the Red Army's campaign to Berlin, must be making nationalistic Russians uncomfortable.

Allowing a superpower's deterrence to weaken is extremely dangerous and will lead to a messy, unorganized reset.

The reset of deterrence must happen sooner rather than later, as people become accustomed to the status quo and opposition to change grows.