Seyed M. Marandi: U.S.-Iran War Enters a New Dangerous Phase

The U.S. is pursuing new, more aggressive and inhumane offensive policies instead of taking an off-ramp after recognizing its previous policies have failed. Iran has shifted from a defensive war to a more assertive, offensive approach under the new Supreme National Security Council chair, General Major General Rezaei, who has a mandate from the leader.

Bessent's stated goal to strangle the country aims to make Iranian society crumble, which is similar to threats to obliterate Iran and means the death of a nation. Iran's recent heavy-handed and disproportionate responses, including strikes on Jordan and U.S. naval ships, send a message that there are no more red lines.

Gulf countries like Kuwait, the Emirates, and Saudi Arabia are partners in the war, providing free jet fuel and bases, making their installations legitimate targets for Iran.

If the U.S. tries to strangle Iran's economy, Iran will strangle neighboring economies, potentially causing these Gulf countries to collapse.

Gulf states are not making money and are selling assets to maintain the status quo, with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain all highly vulnerable.

If escalation continues as Bessent claims, these countries will not survive, leading to a global economic depression and the end of regional energy supplies.

Iran allows oil from China, Iraq, and Oman to pass through the Strait of Hormuz because they did not participate in the war, but restricts ships linked to participating Gulf states.

Iran may move to shutting down the Strait altogether or striking more tankers to decrease oil flow if the U.S. continues to escalate.

Escalating now is not smart for Trump given poor internal polling and the risk of losing the House and Senate, which would make his presidency more difficult. Continued escalation until November 3rd is good for Iran because worse election results for Trump would put him in deeper trouble and possibly impact his war conduct.

Iran will not negotiate a new agreement because allowing the U.S. to ignore its current commitments would lead to the same behavior in any future deal. The New York Times falsely frames the conflict as Iran refusing to negotiate, when an agreement already exists and the U.S. has repeatedly walked away from or undermined deals.

Iran is more prepared than ever, with the government providing large budgets for forces to produce missiles, drones, and expand underground facilities. The U.S. has problems producing new air defense systems and missiles for war, giving Iran the current military advantage.

Iran and Russia are observing each other's fronts, and when the U.S. is distracted or under pressure in one area, it gives the other incentive to push harder. The critical phase of the war in Ukraine strengthens Iran's position on the battlefield in West Asia.