Anthony Aguilar: Iran Baited the U.S. & Is Bleeding It Dry

The U.S. war with Iran lacks clear political or military objectives and was started under the false pretense of a quick victory.

Iran uses geography, time, and asymmetric warfare to create an attrition calculus that favors them over the U.S. Iran is receiving direct aid and intelligence from China and Russia, including a $25 billion nuclear deal with Russia.

U.S. logistics are unsustainable because forward bases are compromised, forcing reliance on distant supply lines. U.S. forces in Kuwait lack sufficient bunkers and warning time, making them vulnerable to missile strikes. The U.S. has sustained far more casualties than the government is admitting.

The April MOU failed because Israel rejected the condition to withdraw from Lebanon, effectively controlling the agreement's fate.

The U.S. may use B-61 tactical nuclear weapons against Iran's nuclear facilities to claim victory and exit the war.

B-61 tactical nuclear bombs are already positioned in the region and can be deployed by F-16s or F-35s.

The U.S. is trapped in an "albatross of victory," escalating desperately without a clear political end state. Amphibious assaults on Iranian islands are unsustainable and will not achieve a clear victory.

Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz threatens the U.S.-led regional security architecture and the petrodollar system. Iran will use its leverage to redesign regional security architecture in its favor.

A diplomatic solution is impossible under the current administration as both sides have rejected negotiations. Iran will withstand the conflict until a new U.S. administration takes office to reshape regional power dynamics.

The U.S. can sustain its current military strategy for at most another 90 days before capability degrades.

The U.S. will be forced into direct naval engagement or asymmetric warfare, increasing casualties.

Iran is baiting the U.S. Navy closer to the Strait of Hormuz to force direct engagement and expose U.S. capabilities.

Iran will soon increase direct strikes on U.S. naval assets in the Gulf of Oman.

The USS Gerald Ford was struck by Iran, but the U.S. covered it up as a laundry room fire.

Russia and China are already directly involved by supplying Iran to drain U.S. military assets.

Continued U.S. escalation will draw Russia and China into more direct involvement, potentially with advanced fighters.

This war will become Donald Trump's Ukraine.