John Mearsheimer: Russia & Iran - The West’s Escalation Trap

The liberal international order is ending because the world has shifted from unipolarity to multipolarity, with China and Russia holding fundamentally different views on global order.

Western elites do not understand balance of power politics or the security dilemma because they were educated during the unipolar moment when realism was considered irrelevant.

U.S. policies of dual containment and the Bush Doctrine during the unipolar moment, influenced by the Israel lobby, created enduring problems in the Middle East.

Using tactical nuclear weapons against Iran is not viable, would cause devastating regional consequences, and would dangerously legitimize nuclear use globally.

Great power competition always involves containment plus rollback, and the security dilemma ensures defensive actions are seen as offensive, escalating danger.

Western leaders in the 1990s pursued NATO expansion in good faith, believing liberal hegemony would succeed and that realist security dilemmas no longer applied.

There is no evidence Russia plans to invade the Baltic states, making Ratcliffe's visit puzzling, though it may relate to deterring Russian retaliation over British cruise missiles.

Russia may be preparing to set a deterrent example against NATO escalation, possibly targeting the Baltic states, as Ukraine crumbles and NATO panics.