Trita Parsi: Why the World Is Quietly Taking Iran's Side in the War

The U.S. has slightly strengthened its bargaining position by allowing more oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, but this is complicated because some of that oil is Iran's own, sold through third parties to circumvent the blockade.

Trump's 'economic D-day' announcement is largely performative, designed to maintain a manageable status quo and keep Iran off the headlines until the midterms, with actual sanctions implementation likely limited to avoid Iranian counter-escalation and spiking gas prices.

Iran is engaging in diplomacy with Pakistan, Qatar, and Oman to demonstrate reasonableness to domestic and regional audiences, and to establish negotiated frameworks that would complicate any future U.S. attempts to renegotiate terms after the midterms.

If the U.S. were to legally seize Iranian tankers on the high seas, it would provoke a strong Iranian counter-escalation and likely draw China into the conflict, though he doubts the administration will actually pursue this course.

He does not know why Iran has not attacked U.S. ships despite having the capability, speculating that Tehran may be reserving such escalation for a worst-case scenario within the current conflict.

U.S. service personnel in the region are deeply frustrated by the indefinite mission and lack of moral backing, viewing the war as being fought for Israel, and are turning to alternative media to understand when they will return home.

Senior officials in Western-aligned countries are secretly rooting for Iran not out of support for Tehran, but because they view the unpredictable Trump administration as the most acute global threat and want the U.S. to face resistance to curb its overconfidence.

The Global South's reluctance to isolate Russia stemmed from alarm over the U.S. weaponizing the dollar and international financial system, which poses a more direct threat to their sovereignty than Russian military actions.

Iran's narrative of resisting a foreign hegemony that enabled a genocide in Gaza has gained significant global receptivity, replacing the outdated liberal democracy versus theocracy framing.

Major European countries like Germany have completely abandoned their traditional defense of international law to support U.S. and Israeli actions in Iran and Gaza, resulting in a devastating loss of diplomatic credibility and Germany's historic failure to win a UN Security Council seat.

Trump may become more reckless after the midterms, but if he pursues diplomacy, any deal will likely resemble the existing MOU and face fierce Israeli opposition, particularly regarding the exclusion of Lebanon, which Iran considers essential to its security.

Any future U.S.-Iran deal would require a regional ceasefire where Iran uses its leverage to restrain the Houthis, a scenario Saudi Arabia would likely prefer over restarting a war it previously lost, given the failure of its Mecca pact to provide practical security.