Chas Freeman: Israel-Turkey Conflict Could Explode Into War

Turkey and Israel are the main contenders for influence in post-Assad Syria, and Israel's attack on an airbase could escalate to war.

Israel views the disarmament and subjugation of Syria as a major strategic achievement, while Turkey has supplied Syria with military equipment including tanks.

Syria's consideration of joining a Pakistani-Saudi-Turkish entente is a clever diplomatic move designed to counter Israel.

National interests, not theology or ideology, now guide foreign policies in the Middle East, and the Shia-Sunni split is far less important.

An Islamic state system transcending religious differences, similar to the Peace of Westphalia, is entirely possible in the Gulf.

Turkey is a formidable military power but has proven unpredictable and untrustworthy in past dealings with Russia and others.

History teaches not to mess with the Turks, and Israel is right to be concerned about facing a formidable opponent in Syria.

Turkish policy's erratic nature reflects strongman Erdogan, who is steady and predictable compared to Trump by most standards.

Israel's IDF is profoundly overstretched and depleted, lacking the capacity to take on a massive country like Turkey.

Israel has no capacity to take on Turkey and much of the rhetoric is electoral, as 97% of Turks are happy to accept the enemy label. Israel's reputation is gravely tarnished; it is now a complete outlaw that has lost Western admiration and faces global opprobrium.

Israel has profound internal problems and divisions that are hard to overcome, despite wars acting as a temporary unifier.

Israel is fissioning with acute divisions, net emigration, and an army crisis where reservists often don't report for duty.

Israel has no long-term survival strategy and faces doubts about its longevity, analogous to the Christian Crusader kingdoms.

Zionism has evolved to advocate Jewish supremacy, which is anathema to most Western Jews, creating a divorce between Zionism and Judaism. Ultra-Orthodox Jews in Israel do not accept the state's existence or moral justification and refuse to defend it or join the army.

Israel is clearly a strategic liability for the U.S., serving as the source of instability in West Asia and repeatedly embroiling America in dangerous situations. Israel advocated a war that suckered the United States into it, then walked away, leaving the U.S. holding the bag.

Trump's announcement of all-out economic warfare and secondary sanctions against Iran is a gamble that will likely fail and unite global opposition.

Secondary sanctions are illegal under international law, and Russia and China will oppose this economic warfare, with many others likely joining them.