What the geopolitics podcasts and publications said today, and where they disagree.

Ukrainian forces conducted their largest combined missile and drone strike against strategic targets in Moscow Oblast on the night of September 19 to 20, damaging the Gazpromneft-Moscow Oil Refinery and a logistics warehouse. The strikes forced the refinery to pause operations and increased offline Russian refining capacity from 10 to 14 percent. Conflicting reporting emerged on whether the "Pelican" strike vehicle used in the package was Ukraine's newly developed FP-7 ballistic missile or a one-way attack drone, with ISW unable to independently verify FP-7 usage. The strikes prompted public discontent in Russia, including in the ultranationalist information space, as authorities prioritized high voter turnout over public safety by not activating air alert sirens or sending SMS warnings.

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Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps publicized details on the second phase of Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman direction, liberating 50 square kilometers and eliminating 800 Russian personnel. The operation demonstrated a limited ability to reintroduce mechanized maneuver at the tactical level, facilitated in part by the use of unmanned ground vehicles. Ukrainian forces extensively targeted Russian drone operators as part of a battlefield shaping effort that enabled drone overmatch prior to the offensive, pushing Russian drone units further from the frontline and forcing elite Rubikon Center units to relocate entirely.

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The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed on September 19 that Russian forces have seized over 5,300 square kilometers and more than 220 settlements in Ukraine since the start of 2026, a figure ISW assesses is vastly inflated. ISW observed evidence that Russian forces have seized only 147.7 square kilometers and 40 settlements, while losing a net of 20 settlements in 2026. The MoD's claims likely aim to shape Russian voters' perceptions during State Duma elections and convince foreign governments that support for Ukraine is futile ahead of the UN General Assembly. Meanwhile, Ukraine's systematic intermediate-range strike campaign against Russian logistics in occupied Luhansk Oblast disrupted Russian logistics up to 120 kilometers from the frontline and degraded fuel supplies.

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US President Donald Trump signed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act on September 18, authorizing the United States to impose tariffs of up to 100 percent on the five largest importers of Russian oil and natural gas. The act comes amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and ongoing Russian energy infrastructure strikes.

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Seyed Mohammad Marandi asserts the US could launch heavy strikes on Iran or Yemen within hours or days, driven by economic pressures and upcoming midterm elections. He argues that US military action would fail to achieve positive results because both Iran and Yemen have dispersed and hardened their assets. Marandi explains that Iran currently allows limited oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz to support allies but would shut it down completely if war breaks out, which would devastate the global economy. He warns that either US strategy of targeting military assets or destroying critical energy infrastructure would fail militarily and trigger massive Iranian retaliation against regional infrastructure, leading to a global economic collapse.

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Alexander describes Saudi Arabia as caught between Houthi advances controlling the Red Sea coast and Bab al-Mandab, Iraqi militia drone strikes damaging the East-West pipeline, and Iranian threats to the Strait of Hormuz. He notes Saudi participation in the US-Iran air war earlier in the year led to Iranian missile strikes damaging Saudi oil installations still unrepaired, and Saudi Arabia has reportedly stopped exporting oil entirely and is running out of Patriot interceptors. The destroyed East-West pipeline needs at least six weeks to fix, and Saudi Arabia has cut oil shipments to Europe, badly hurting Poland, which refines about 40% of Saudi crude, and the Baltic states dependent on Polish refining.

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