What the geopolitics podcasts and publications said today, and where they disagree.

U.S. Navy SEALs and divers spent roughly four months covertly clearing Iranian mines from the Strait of Hormuz using unmanned vessels and underwater robots, according to Financial Times reporting. Divers sometimes entered the water to place explosive charges on suspected mines, and no American casualties have been reported. Despite the clearance, shipping traffic through the strait has fallen to its lowest level since May, averaging just 10 commodity vessels per day over the past 10 days, while British Maritime Authorities report 27 projectile strike incidents against ships since early July.

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Iran's oil exports have been trapped inside the Persian Gulf for nearly two months, with its pre-positioned offshore crude reserve falling from 90 million barrels to around 29 million. Daily oil loadings dropped 85 percent to an average of 255,000 barrels in August, and petrochemical loadings fell roughly two-thirds. At the current delivery rate, the remaining offshore supply could be exhausted by mid-October, with payments for previously delivered cargoes expected to dry up by mid-December. Official inflation is running above 80 percent year over year, and the IMF expects Iran's economy to contract by 5.4 percent this year.

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Russian forces are advancing purposefully across multiple fronts, creating encirclements threatening Dobropilia, Slaviansk-Kramatorsk, Kharkiv, and Orehov. Less than 48 hours after U.S. peace envoys departed Kyiv, Russia launched a massive barrage of missiles and drones on the Ukrainian capital, killing at least three people and wounding 19 others, while also striking commuter trains and a market in other regions. U.S. envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff spent over three hours behind closed doors with Putin in Moscow, with Witkoff claiming they made progress and the Kremlin not ruling out restarting three-way negotiations.

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Israeli strikes killed at least 12 people in southern Lebanon early Monday, with the deadliest attack hitting a residential building in Farah Raman. The Israeli military stated it was targeting Hezbollah infrastructure and terrorists transferring weapons, while a relative of victims said the building was hit as children prepared for school. Separately, Hezbollah launched two explosive drones overnight toward IDF troops near the Ali al-Taher Ridge in southeastern Lebanon. The IDF announced it had established operational control over the ridge and cleared Hezbollah fighters from tunnels beneath it.

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Russia's foreign ministry announced that Germany's consulate in St. Petersburg will be forced to close by September 18, ordering Goethe Institute cultural centers to shut down as well. Moscow denies involvement in the Leipzig attack and accuses Germany of using the incident as a pretext to damage relations. German officials counter that the drone's explosives, detonator, and configuration resembled equipment linked to previous Russian hybrid operations.

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The UN reports that self-defense groups and vigilante mobs have become significant contributors to violence in Haiti, with nearly 90 people killed by them between mid-April and mid-July. A 26-year-old woman told the Washington Post that coalition members abducted her and a leader known as Woody ordered her sexual assault. The Trump administration transformed the UN-authorized mission into the Gang Suppression Force, doubling its strength and providing over $970 million in support, while Haiti's disarmament commission says non-criminal brigade members could eventually join legitimate security forces.

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