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Why the Iran War Won’t End Soon (w/ Alastair Crooke) | TCHR

09 August 2026 · 54m

What was discussed

US military stockpile depletion in the Iran war

Trump canceled a planned large-scale military attack on Iran following reports of severe US munitions depletion since the war began on June 28. Estimates cited include roughly 1,000 of 3,000 Tomahawk missiles used, 1,100 of 4,000 JASSM missiles, 40-70 of only 90 PRSM missiles, up to 250 of 410 SM-3 missiles, and large fractions of SM-6, THAAD, and Patriot missile stockpiles expended.

Strategic Petroleum Reserve depletion and Strait of Hormuz control

The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to its lowest level since 1983, leaving only about 43 days of crude oil supply. The US has been unable to wrest control of the Strait of Hormuz from Iran, which along with Oman jointly controls the waterway, and Iran's parliament is reviewing a bill to bar US and Israeli vessels from transiting it.

Trump's pattern of threats and retreats

Trump has repeatedly issued apocalyptic threats against Iran, such as an April 7 warning that civilization would 'die tonight,' only to back down hours later with a ceasefire announcement. This pattern has eroded his credibility and left Iran distrustful of any negotiated settlement, while Iran calculates that the US cannot sustain the conflict's military and economic costs.

End of Western air dominance and Iran's missile strategy

Alastair Crooke argues the war represents the end of a Western way of fighting based on air dominance and carpet bombing, undermined by cheap electronic components enabling missile proliferation. Iran has developed a 'mosaic system' burying missiles, production facilities, and leadership underground, giving it missile dominance over the Gulf despite lacking an air force.

State of Hormuz negotiations

Technical talks between Oman and Iran (without direct US involvement) are discussing shipping corridors through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran planning to charge 7% fees and 20% fines for vessels violating its rules. Iran intends to maintain IRGC control over passage, closing the strait to US and Israeli vessels even after any agreement, with implementation contingent on lifting sanctions and ending the US blockade.

Trump's dilemma between accepting loss or further military action

Trump faces a choice between accepting a strategic loss over Hormuz or pursuing further military escalation, though such action would not change Iran's posture or missile capability. Defense Secretary Bassant's comment that Hormuz might become 'irrelevant' is discussed as a possible signal of preparing for an exit from the conflict.

Iran's rejection of the Memorandum of Understanding as deceit

Iran's leadership now widely regards the MOU as a deliberate deceit intended only to reopen Hormuz quickly without genuine intent toward a real settlement. Iran demands reparations, release of roughly $100 billion in frozen assets, and guarantees against future attack, while Trump faces pressure to secure even an interim deal before the midterms.

Iran's leverage through oil markets and proactive military pressure

Saudi oil exports through the Red Sea have dropped to zero due to Houthi attacks, and Iran's control of Hormuz restricts middle distillates like diesel and jet fuel critical for military operations. Iran has shifted to a proactive military stance, conducting attacks on vessels and Gulf targets to extend pressure on the US without triggering full-scale war, believing it holds greater leverage than Washington.

Changed Iranian public mood and drive for revenge

Public sentiment in Iran has shifted from seeking a deal to demanding revenge, reflecting a resurgence of Iranian civilizational identity after being treated with perceived disrespect. Massive funeral gatherings for the assassinated supreme leader in Iran and Iraq, each drawing millions, underscored this hardened mentality among younger Iranians.

Global economic consequences: Japanese yen crisis and bond markets

The war's economic pressures intersect with a separate crisis involving the collapsing Japanese yen, forcing the US to intervene by selling euros to buy yen and support Japan, which holds 1.2 trillion dollars in US treasuries. Roughly 14% of the Japanese economy consists of 'zombie companies,' and the broader bond market crisis is tied to preserving dollar hegemony and the petrodollar system that Iran's actions threaten.

Houthi-Saudi conflict and destruction of Aramco infrastructure

A renewed hot war between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia has seen Saudi-backed mercenary forces routed in Yemen and the destruction of a major Aramco refinery and pipeline connecting Saudi oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Saudi Arabia blamed Iraqi resistance groups rather than the Houthis for the attack, though evidence suggests the Houthis were responsible.

Iraqi resistance (Hashd al-Shaabi) tensions and Kurdish region strikes

The Hashd al-Shaabi, described as Iraqi nationalists rather than mere Iranian proxies, have grown angry after US and Saudi strikes killed members during a religious commemoration period, prompting threats of retribution. Iran has also struck Kurdish forces in Erbil to preempt a US-backed plan for a Kurdish incursion into Iran, while a separate incident saw an Iranian ship struck by Ukrainian missiles in the Caspian Sea.

Risk of Israeli-provoked crisis in the West Bank

Israeli politicians Ben Gvir and Smotrich are described as seeking to provoke a major crisis in the West Bank, potentially around Temple Mount, to force a Palestinian exodus ahead of Israel's October elections. Egypt and Jordan have moved military forces to their borders to prevent this kind of ethnic cleansing, raising the risk of broader regional confrontation.

Comparative vulnerability of Israeli and Iranian infrastructure

Israel's desire for the US to destroy Iran's dispersed infrastructure is contrasted with Israel's own concentrated and vulnerable infrastructure, including only two oil refineries. Iran's relatively low dependence on desalinated water (3%) compared to Saudi Arabia (70%) and the UAE (over 80%) gives Iran a retaliatory option that could create a humanitarian crisis by striking Gulf desalination plants.

Absence of a comprehensive solution amid regional matrix of conflicts

Attempts to pressure Iran indirectly through Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria have transformed the conflict into an interconnected matrix of separate regional wars with distinct agendas, making a simple resolution increasingly unlikely. Crooke concludes that any miscalculation in these interlinked conflicts could escalate into a broader regional war involving Iran, Israel, and multiple states.