The Iran War Is the Biggest Strategic Blunder in US History (w/ John Mearsheimer) | TCHR

The U.S. intends to cut off Iran's revenue sources and warned countries they must choose between the U.S. and Iran or face secondary penalties. China and Russia will not cease trade with Iran, and the UAE is unlikely to cooperate because Iran has threatened to attack it if it cuts off economic intercourse.

The Bessent strategy is a hail Mary pass that is unlikely to work because the U.S. and Israel represent an existential threat to Iran, meaning the bar for surrender is almost unimaginably high.

The U.S. has put the military option aside and lost coercive leverage, while Iran now holds the offensive military advantage. The idea of maintaining bases and radars in the Gulf is a pipe dream because ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones make it almost impossible to defend them. The cost exchange ratio favors incoming missiles at roughly 8-to-1 or 16-to-1, and defensive systems will eventually be overwhelmed.

Expending boutique weapons in the Gulf has significantly reduced the U.S. ability to contain China and support Ukraine. The U.S. has moved troops and the only East Asia-based aircraft carrier to the Gulf, delayed Tomahawk deliveries to Japan, and cannot provide Patriots to Ukraine.

The Iran War is the greatest strategic blunder in U.S. history, worse than the Iraq War, because Trump started it based on false claims about Iran's nuclear threshold and the possibility of regime change via bombing. The U.S. is zero for four on its war goals: eliminating nuclear enrichment, destroying long-range missiles, severing Iran's ties to proxies, and achieving regime change. The U.S. has lost control of the Strait of Hormuz, wrecked its basing and alliance structures, and risks an economic collapse that could make Trump look like Herbert Hoover.

The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve is at 1982 levels, commercial oil companies have depleted stockpiles, and diesel and fertilizer prices have spiked.

It is hard to say exactly how dire the oil situation is, but if the conflict continues for another month or two, there is a good chance the situation will get much worse due to winter demand and an anticipated food crisis.

About one third of the world's fertilizer came out of the Gulf, and disruptions to Ukrainian and Russian grain exports via the Black Sea will significantly drive up food prices.

When the hail Mary fails, Trump will either have to capitulate to Iranian demands or continue soldiering on and hope for a miracle.

Tactical nuclear weapons are not a viable option because they won't open the Strait, would incentivize proliferation, and are opposed by virtually all of Trump's advisers.

People all over the world are anxious to see the U.S. get its nose bloodied, and Russia, China, and Turkey have strategic interests in seeing Iran defeat the U.S. and Israel.

Gulf states may view the U.S.-Israel tag team as a greater threat than Iran, because Iran has not initiated wars or committed genocide while Israel is highly aggressive.