Federal Reserve Interest Rates, Reports Reveal Iran War Costs, Kennedy Center Closure

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates today for the first time in three years.

The U.S. war with Iran has rekindled inflation, pushing oil and gasoline prices higher, and the Congressional Budget Office warns the war is likely to keep putting upward pressure on prices into next year. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh renewed his promise to get inflation under control, and raising rates is the Fed's primary tool for fighting inflation.

If the Fed doesn't raise rates after Warsh's hawkish speech, the Fed risks losing credibility.

Market odds of a rate hike are north of 90%. The Fed is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point today. Chairman Warsh will probably not offer a forecast today and is generally discouraged from forward guidance that can tie the Fed's hands.

It is generally not helpful for the Fed to try to surprise people; providing advance information allows for better decisions.

Two new reports put the cost of the Iran War above 30 billion dollars and detail damage to U.S. bases and shortages of key weapons.

The Congressional Budget Office and the Pentagon's Inspector General released independent, nonpartisan reports detailing extensive damage to U.S. bases and military equipment. Iranian strikes damaged or destroyed hundreds of buildings at U.S. bases across eight countries and around 60 U.S. aircraft, including Reaper drones, refueling aircraft, and fighter planes. The CBO put the war cost at $38 billion and the Pentagon IG at $33 billion, both in the same ballpark as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's July estimate of $37 billion. The CBO says the military has burned up to two thirds of the Patriot interceptor missiles, and it could take up to five years to replace them. The Trump administration is asking for an additional $67 billion to cover the Iran war and other urgent military needs, but Congress hasn't acted. The Congressional Budget Office predicts inflation will be about a half percentage point higher until early next year than it would have been without the war.

The U.S. is producing more exquisite and elite weapons than at any time in our history.

The board of the Kennedy Center has voted to shut the arts complex down shortly after a federal judge ruled the board cannot add President Trump's name to the building.

The board says the center is in dire circumstances, both financially and structurally, and voted for the shutdown after a heated exchange between Trump and Representative Joyce Beatty.

He will not go ahead with the renovation unless his name is on the building.

Beatty's legal team filed Trump's post with the judge, and Trump and the board have already filed an appeal. The board intends to move the Kennedy Center Honors and the Mark Twain Prize elsewhere, but where and how is unclear, and it is unclear how the National Symphony Orchestra will be supported. None of the people on the board or in upper management have programming experience, and many questions about transparency, bidding, oversight, and the fate of archives and artworks remain unanswered.