WAR UPDATE: Harvard Professor on Iran, Russia, China, and Trump’s Dangerous Moves in the Middle East

The post-war world will be more dangerous due to great power competition, eroding norms, and economic weaponization.

The ideas that democracies don't fight neighbors and trading partners don't war are false clichés.

Statistical evidence shows interdependence reduces conflict likelihood but does not guarantee peace.

U.S. policy failed due to hubris about China's inevitable democratization and corporate greed. Middle East conflicts consistently derailed U.S. efforts to focus on China.

China wants regional deference and U.S. withdrawal from Asia, not territorial conquest.

The U.S. must prevent Chinese regional dominance to maintain global security.

Trump's pivot to North Korea alienates a successful democratic ally and repeats past failures.

Trump is motivated by a desire for a peacemaker legacy and overconfidence in his deal-making.

The war resulted from Netanyahu's persuasion and Trump's legacy-seeking, not an imminent threat.

Trump understood the consequences but proceeded anyway.

The volunteer force and low casualties reduce public pressure for protests.

The political establishment broadly supports regime change in Iran despite public opposition.

Trump's peace promise was unrealistic and ignored the complexity of the conflict.

A viable deal requires Ukrainian neutrality and difficult security negotiations.

European politicians are convinced Russia plans to invade them.

A Russian invasion of Europe is militarily implausible and lacks incentive.

Global trade will continue through regionalization and friendshoring despite rising tensions.

Resolution requires U.S. admission of error and acceptance of Iranian leverage.

Iran will demand significant costs to deter future U.S. aggression.

The U.S. should reduce its physical presence and adopt a selective balance-of-power strategy.

U.S. disengagement might encourage proliferation, but U.S. involvement also spurs it.

A nuclear Middle East could be more stable due to mutual deterrence.

Trump can end the war by declaring victory and changing the subject. Israeli influence and donor pressure prevent Trump from cutting losses.

The U.S. is not a democracy if major policies consistently oppose public will.

The system is democratic but mediated by institutions and interest groups.

Current U.S. conditions mirror pre-revolutionary France regarding inequality and fiscal crisis.

Wealthy elites should support redistribution to prevent systemic collapse.

The foreign policy elite faces no accountability for repeated strategic failures.

Officials who admit mistakes and learn should be preferred over unrepentant ones.