The PDB Situation Report | September 12th, 2026: The Iran Conflict Just Entered a More Dangerous Phase & Pentagon Considers Postwar Pullback

Iranian missiles damaged roughly eight U.S. F-15s at a Jordan airbase and an A-10 Warthog, with no American casualties reported.

The U.S. has militarily opened the Strait of Hormuz through demining, naval escorts, and a maritime blockade, though the private sector has not yet recognized the operational win.

Trump's doctrine against Iran is "Ronald Reagan meets Hammurabi," combining forceful responses with an "eye for an eye" approach.

Tehran's overarching strategy is to wait out Trump, aiming to outlast "Max Pressure 2.0" just as it did the first term. Time is a weapon for both sides, but the U.S. is using economic and maritime blockades to limit the regime's ability to keep fighting.

Credible reporting and satellite imagery indicate Iran has accelerated work at Pickaxe Mountain, a nuclear site that could become the hardest target for the U.S. if completed.

The U.S. public likely lacks the patience to ride out the conflict if gas prices remain high.

The flare-up between Iran-backed Houthis and Saudi-backed forces is serious and significant, with the Houthis landing damning blows against southern Saudi Arabia.

Saudi and U.S. diplomatic efforts to hold the line and pressure the proxies are commendable.

Reports indicate the Pentagon is discussing a smaller permanent U.S. military footprint in the Middle East post-Iran war, potentially reducing troops and facilities while relying more on hardened bases and mobile forces.

A generation has grown up without the visceral reality of 9/11, and those who lived it must pass on oral histories to preserve the memory.

President Bush's humility and reliance on staff and prayer after 9/11 demonstrated the character needed to carry the weight of the attacks.

The U.S. will undergo a rational readjustment rather than a full withdrawal, maintaining enough force to respond to threats but not putting boots on the ground in Iran.

Major military operations are likely over, and the U.S. will maintain a maintenance mission to respond to threats like restarting nuclear activity.

The U.S. will break things but not own them, forcing regional allies to invest in their own capabilities and avoid circumstances that require U.S. intervention.

U.S. relationships with Gulf allies have evolved significantly since 9/11, with Israel and the UAE becoming highly capable partners.

Qatar remains a problematic mediator that plays both sides, similar to Pakistan.

Explaining the 9/11 attacks to his young daughter was the most memorable and overwhelming moment from that day.