Sharp or Square - FINAL NFL WEEK 1 Bets: Gambling Picks & Predictions

Tampa Bay plus three and a half is a strong bet because Baker Mayfield has his full complement of weapons and a good offensive line, even if the line moves to four.

The Buccaneers are a good bet as a dog with Baker healthy, and the line movement is likely due to public money line bets rather than sharp action.

The Browns at plus nine offer value because Week One underdogs historically cover at a high rate, and the public is overhyping the Jaguars.

The Browns plus nine will not be one of their final five picks, but he defers to Simon's analysis on the game.

The Steelers are now the most public side of the week due to Cooper Rush starting, making Atlanta plus six and a half a strong contrarian bet.

They are already dug into Pittsburgh from earlier bets, but the massive line movement and public money make the Steelers a risky bet at minus six and a half.

Houston at plus one and a half is a sharp bet because professional bettors are backing the Texans while the public overvalues Josh Allen.

The Texans' defense is too good to ignore, and a rookie head coach calling defense for the first time on the road creates uncertainty that favors Houston covering.

Carolina plus three is a strong bet because Bryce Young performs well as an underdog and the Bears' defense is suspect on paper.

The Panthers will keep the game close because Bryce Young tears up bad defenses and Carolina has enough offensive weapons to make it a real game.

Minnesota minus one and a half is a strong bet because sharp money is moving the line and the public is overvaluing Green Bay despite their poor defense and offensive line.

Minnesota is one of two favorites he likes late in the week, alongside the Chiefs, and he is comfortable locking them in as a final pick.

The Giants plus three or three and a half is a strong bet because the line has moved favorably and Week One divisional home dogs historically cover at a high rate.

The Giants can score against Dallas's defense, and the line movement is partly due to public overreaction and uncertainty around Malik Nabers' status.

The final five picks are Tampa Bay plus three and a half, Houston plus one and a half, Carolina plus three, Giants plus three or three and a half, and Minnesota minus one and a half.

The betting contest will not run in Week One due to legal and logistics issues but will launch for Week Two.