Ukraine Loses Black Sea Ports and Air Defense Options

The Europeans previously opposed US-Russia negotiations but now seek them to force a pause and rearm Ukraine.

Europeans want a pause to rearm Ukraine but their insistence on being at the table will wreck negotiations.

Russia has publicly criticized the US role in the war and will give any US envoy a cold reception.

Moscow cannot believe that Western decision-makers live in a bubble and refuse to acknowledge Russia's economic and military reality.

The drone offensive costs hundreds of millions but fails to impact the Russian economy or the front lines.

Western policymakers still believe the drone offensive is making a difference and necessitates further escalation.

Western decision-makers believe Ukraine is winning and that sanctions are crippling Russia.

Ukrainian mapping projects no longer record Russian advances, feeding false information to European leaders.

The US has no air defense interceptors to give, yet the demand for escalation is baked into the political narrative.

European and American militaries are in a terrible state, but politicians will demand escalation regardless of reality.

Putin faced internal criticism over the Anchorage negotiations and subsequently adopted a much harder line.

The offensive was years in the making and allows the West to pretend it is working despite battlefield losses.

The fall of Kiev will trigger fear, panic, and demands for sending ground troops, which will be extremely dangerous.

Media stories are a domestic political tool to stop the new PM from reversing course on Ukraine.