UK Breakup on the Table; Merz CDU Collapse

The declaration is mostly a media PR stunt at this time. Northern Ireland is going to become part of the Republic of Ireland relatively soon because the drift of events is irresistible. Scotland is some distance from independence but has moved further in that direction over the last twenty years. Wales has a long way to go toward secession and will take a very long time to disengage from England.

Joining the EU is an all but impossible sale in Wales because Brussels is not popular there. Plaid Cymru's pro-EU stance has worked against it in the past and could deter Welsh independence support.

Scottish secession could happen in the next few years more easily than Welsh secession. An independent Scotland might debate whether to join the EU or remain outside like Norway and Iceland.

The CDU has fallen to seven percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern polling, with some saying it might fall below five percent.

Merz has come across as angry and refuses to shift policies, making him likely the most unpopular chancellor in German history.

If the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern results are as bad as expected, there is a very good chance Merz will be gone within the next few weeks.