AfD Wins Big, CDU Collapse, Merz is Finished

The AfD won nearly 44% of the vote on record turnout, while the CDU's vote share more than halved to just over 17%.

The election result is a massive repudiation of Chancellor Merz and the entire German political system.

The AfD falling three seats short of a majority is an optimal result that lets them claim the establishment is blocking the will of the people.

Enforcing the firewall to keep the AfD out of power would look like a grotesque stitch-up and strengthen the party's underdog appeal.

Opposition to Merz is so strong that there is a high chance he will be pushed out within weeks.

Polling suggests a fifth of Germans no longer expect Merz to remain Chancellor beyond the end of the year.

Replacing Merz with a more personable leader without changing core policies will only provide a temporary bump before CDU support falls again.

The CDU cannot win back voters on immigration because it is permanently associated with Merkel's 2015 policies.

The SPD is in an existential crisis and its only remaining policy is to ban the AfD.

Smearing the AfD as Moscow-controlled has backfired and actually increased support for the party.

The AfD distinguishes itself through a harder line on immigration and a commitment to ending the conflict with Russia to restore gas flows.

An AfD government reversing anti-Russian policies would be electorally successful because those policies are deeply unpopular.