Raisi's BRICS Legacy Shapes Iran's Future as War Resumes

The U.S. claims thirty to forty ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz nightly, while tracking services report only about ten daily.

I think there is enough external data to suggest that this has indeed happened.

I cannot imagine that this has been going on without the Iranians knowing about it, and without the Iranians, in some ways, in some way, greenlighting it.

There are hardliners in Iran... who want a confrontation with the United States, who oppose any concessions to the United States, who want the Strait of Hormuz to remain completely closed. Then there is another faction, and the probable person that is best known relative to it is Pezeshkian, the president. Presidential wants a deal.

I think the entire discussion within Iran is framed in that way. In other words, they think only of the United States either as the source of all their problems or as their the solution to all their problems. I think that within Iran itself, there are relatively few people within the upper reaches of the political system that are prepared to think of alternatives, like developing BRICS, strengthening relations with China, building stronger relations with Russia.

Donald Trump... started to talk about this on True Social. He talked about the fact that the United States controls the Strait of Hormuz. He basically said things about Iran, which suggested that he was in no mood to make any kind of compromises with him, with them. And the result was that this formal arrangement that existed between the Americans and the Iranians fell apart. The hardliners in Tehran once again regained the ascendancy. There were strikes on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The fighting, in effect, has resumed.

The Strait of Hormuz is completely closed again because, without some degree of Iranian, let's call it complicity, I don't think any ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

The IRGC and Iran can wreak devastation across the Middle East. They can destroy all the pipelines. They can destroy all the energy facilities. They can destroy the desalination plants. They can create a massive humanitarian crisis, but ultimately, the United States is a is a superpower, and Iran is not.

If Iran is unwise enough to get itself into a indefinite military confrontation with the United States, then the pendulum of advantage is gradually going to shift in favour of the Americans.

If we are talking about Iran undertaking a war of choice, a long war of choice against the United States, I would say that this was a very reckless, a very risky approach to take. I also have to say this: I that the hardliners are absolutely right, that you cannot trust the Americans. And that you cannot make long-term deals with them, and that if you make those long-term deals, then all you're going to end up with is a deal which the Americans will break.

Hormuz is the key in a confrontation between the United States and Iran... If the United States can get ships through Hormuz... then they can keep the the economic indicators... low, the price of oil, the the interest rates, the USD.

Trump, being the the salesman, the con man that he is, he can he can take one ship and turn it into thirty or forty... and so that'll keep the price of oil down.

For Iran, they they have to keep Hormuz closed in order to inflict pain on the United States and on the global economy, so that the U.S. does eventually retreat.

Hormuz, the leverage it gives, in effect traps Iran in a confrontation with the United States.

Raisi... brought Iran into BRICS. He had close relations with the Chinese. He had close relations with the Russians.

It's probably because of Raisi's role that Iran improved the technology of its ballistic missiles and developed the effectiveness of its drone technology.

There's been this very interesting article in the Financial Times... reports, rumours, information we've received... that the Russians have been providing Iran with technical assistance, that they've been providing Iran with all kinds of military assistance... it all goes back to the period when Raisi was Iran's president.

That's why they took him out.

I wonder if there's a middle ground for for Iran in all of this, in that they they make a deal with the United States, understanding that the deal is going to be broken, but they they put a deal together, which does give Iran the time that it will need to to to build things up.

I think that is an that is a coherent and intelligent policy, but in order to execute on it, you must prepare the ground for it carefully. At this moment in time, I get the sense that both the Russians and even more the Chinese are very wary of having anything to do with the Iranians, especially the Chinese.

I don't think the Americans are going to wait five years. I don't think the Israelis are going to wait five years. A year at most is what I would guess.