Modi, Erdogan and Tokayev Gang Up on Putin

Modi, Erdogan, and Tokayev jointly pressured Putin for a ceasefire at Bishkek while Xi did not, and Putin was visibly furious at being lectured

Publicly told Putin that all the world wants peace and that hostilities must cease as soon as possible, invoking India's Gandhian tradition

Downplayed being under special pressure at Bishkek, noting Ukraine had lobbied allies including India and Turkey to get Russia to stop, but Russia would not

Allies like Modi and Tokayev don't genuinely care about a ceasefire; the US is using leverage over them to pressure Russia so Ukraine can buy time to rearm

Some BRICS officials personally fear US sanctions, which is why BRICS Pay stalled after Kazan, exposing BRICS/SCO as collectively weak and scared of Washington

China deliberately kept Ukraine out of its Xi-Putin readout and, together with Russia, ensured Ukraine was excluded from the SCO's final statement, while pipeline and other economic ties advance

Russia has equal or greater leverage over India and Kazakhstan than the US does, so their wavering ultimately doesn't matter much to Russia

Russians are not relaxed about this because they notice their allies' support is conditional, unlike the unconditional Western support for Ukraine, which irritates them

Russia increasingly feels isolated except for China and especially North Korea, whose support has been uniquely full and reliable, and this may be a wake-up call after Putin went too soft at allies' urging

Putin had been going soft on Ukraine and the West partly because BRICS/Eurasian friends urged him not to escalate too hard

Western media narratives of Russian stalemate/economic collapse caused allies to hedge on supporting Russia, but as the war's outcome becomes undeniable those allies will align more firmly behind Russia

Winning decisively and showing strength is the way to convince allies to become stable, reliable partners

Turkey, Kazakhstan, and Georgia will likely grow nervous of a resurgent, more powerful Russia, while much of India's political establishment would quietly welcome a decisive Russian victory as a counterbalance to the US and China

There will be a readjustment period for Russia's neighbors and allies, which will be especially hard for Turkey given its Black Sea position