Armenia Ditches Russia for the EU and Azerbaijan

Pashinyan intends to take Armenia into the EU and break from Russia's CSTO security umbrella, shifting alignment toward Europe, Azerbaijan, and Turkey.

The move is insanity, but typical of a certain type of person; Pashinyan retains power and parliamentary control despite likely performing worse in recent elections than official figures show, backed by NGOs and supportive media.

Armenia's long-term security has been provided only by Russia since the late 18th century, starkly shown after WWI when the Russian Empire collapsed. Pashinyan conceded Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan and blamed Russia and the CSTO for abandoning Armenia to fuel anti-Russian sentiment and justify a Western pivot.

Russia is placing restrictions on Armenian exports and holds levers like gas supply; cutting gas would cause an economic crisis.

If gas is cut off, Armenia must turn to Azerbaijan, which will use the opportunity to demand more concessions on Nakhchivan corridors and land, making this a policy of national suicide.

There is no economic lifeline or security for Armenia from the West; it is fantasy to think otherwise, as shown by Western guarantees to Saudis, Emirates, Kuwaitis, and Ukrainians.

EU bailouts would come at a very heavy price for Armenia.

Pashinyan is in conflict with the Armenian Church, excluded Catholics from parliament opening, but is determined to pursue the pro-EU policy to the end.

He has never met an Armenian who likes Pashinyan; his continued power stems from NGOs, media, a massive U.S. embassy in Yerevan, and influential diasporas in France and the U.S.