Bill Kristol: A Blue Wave vs. the Toxic Red Tide

Donald Trump's declining approval rating and the referendum nature of the election point to a strong Democratic wave in 2026.

Democrats will see big gains among Latino voters and overperform in places like South Texas, but gerrymandering and polarization will limit the scale of the victory.

Democrats could net as many as 16 House seats, reaching 230, but the Senate map is tight and requires winning five seats for a 52-seat majority.

Democrats could net 230 to 235 House seats, and the Senate map is tight with races in Ohio, Texas, Alaska, and Iowa being critical.

The 2006 midterms were driven by dissatisfaction with the Iraq War, Hurricane Katrina, and the Mark Foley scandal, which demoralized the Republican base.

The Harriet Miers nomination and the Iraq War contributed to base demoralization and a wave that swept out Republican incumbents in 2006.

The 1994 wave was driven by the failure of Hillary Clinton's healthcare plan, congressional scandals, and a realignment of Southern and rural voters toward the GOP.

The 1994 midterms marked the end of 40 years of Democratic control of the House, with Republicans gaining 54 seats due to a broader realignment.

Democrats should emulate Truman's 1948 campaign by attacking the Republican Congress as a "rubber stamp" and focusing on economic populism, healthcare, and housing.

Truman's strategy of attacking the Republican Congress as a "rubber stamp" could resonate with voters frustrated by the current Congress's inaction.