Gilbert Doctorow : What is Russia’s Strategy Toward the US?

Reassessing Putin's Odessa strategy4:09

Doctorow walks back his earlier speculation that Russia's destruction of Odessa's port and the semi-blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports signaled a strategy to strangle Ukraine's Western military supply lines. He notes no follow-up strikes on Kyiv decision centers or on the Poland-to-Lvov land supply routes, concluding the Odessa strike was instead a tit-for-tat economic response to Ukraine's attacks on Russia's shadow fleet and oil/gas exports. He maintains Putin is sticking to a slow war of attrition, and argues that on its current course this amounts to a Pyrrhic victory since Ukraine's neutrality and NATO's removal—Putin's original stated goals—remain unachieved.

Drone warfare slows Russian advance6:06

Doctorow explains that Russia's advance, while eventually overcoming years of Western-backed Ukrainian fortifications in Donbass, has become cautious and slow for a new reason: drone warfare over the past 18 months prevents troop concentration due to vulnerability to kamikaze drones. He notes Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, Ukraine's last major defensive towns, are already being entered and will likely fall within weeks, after which Russia could theoretically advance to the Dnipro.

Kremlin's shifting war terminology7:27

Doctorow observes that Kremlin officials have quietly reduced use of the term 'special military operation,' while Russian commentators and television increasingly describe the conflict as a war, or specifically a Russia-NATO or Russia-EU conflict distinct from what began in February 2022. He says official Russian state media still avoids calling it a war outright, only because they are obliged to maintain the original framing.

US posture as 'neutral' mediator8:42

Doctorow asserts the United States is pretending to be a neutral arbiter between Russia and Ukraine despite being a co-belligerent. He argues Moscow has an interest in maintaining this fiction because it prevents NATO's Article 5 from being invoked, which Russia wants to avoid especially given the possibility of Russian strikes on Western arms producers like Rheinmetall.

Putin's NATO and Arctic warnings10:06

• Putin (clip)clip

  NATO expansion, new weapons systems, and Arctic tensions over the Northern Sea Route threaten Russia, though Russia remains open to cooperation with friendly states

• Gilbert Doctorowopinion

  Putin's threats over shadow-fleet seizures are empty until acted upon, and Western Arctic rhetoric is unbacked by deeds given Russia's vast icebreaker advantage

Missile strikes as propaganda, not strategy shift14:38

Citing a Kiev Post report that Russia could launch 200 ballistic missiles at Ukraine in a single attack, plus reports of over 100 North Korean-supplied missiles reportedly unstoppable by known air defenses, Doctorow argues these strikes are devastating but function mainly as domestic propaganda for Russian television rather than a real change in war strategy, since Russia still has not targeted Kyiv's decision-making centers as Putin once suggested it would.

German drone find and Panetta's Article 5 claim17:36

• Leon Panetta (clip)clip

  Russia is testing NATO's Article 5 through incursions like the German drone and may escalate further

• Gilbert Doctorowopinion

  This is propaganda for an assumed audience of fools; a single drone is utterly meaningless against the war's true scale

US loses global respect19:46

Doctorow states that the US has repeatedly lost and regained international respect across administrations since George W. Bush, but argues the current administration has lost the respect of most world leaders, a status that can be recovered later given America's military strength.

Covert US intelligence support to Ukraine20:06

Doctorow says he cannot confirm details of covert US involvement in Ukraine, but suggests that even limited reconnaissance support for missile and drone targeting—separate from the US company drone factory near Kyiv destroyed by Russia—is of decisive importance. He notes this US support is independent of European aid, meaning the US could withdraw it unilaterally, leaving Ukraine to fail quickly, which he says is already a favorable outcome from Moscow's perspective.

Iran's defiance versus Trump's Hormuz claims22:11

• Gilbert Doctorowopinion

  Iran's resistance to US pressure shames other anti-hegemonic states, including Russia and China, whose credibility is visibly declining among fence-sitting allies

• Foreign Minister Araghchi (clip)clip

  Iran rendered the world's most formidable army helpless and defeated it, astonishing the world

• Donald Trump (clip)clip

  The US Navy maintains an infallible blockade and the Strait of Hormuz is actually open under US control