Alastair Crooke : US Middle East Dominance is Ended

Iran's Security Council hardens demands1:45

Alastair Crooke reports that Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued a new, tougher set of demands via its outgoing secretary (a Pezeshkian appointee), while incoming member Rezaei will soon hold a formal vote as the Supreme Leader's representative, signaling a strategic shift. The new document expands prior conditions beyond Lebanon to explicitly include Palestine, and reiterates that there will be no negotiation until sanctions are lifted, the blockade ends, and Iran's frozen funds are returned.

Trump's dilemma: capability limits and off-ramp pressure4:21

• Alastair Crookeassertion

  The US lacks the weaponry and resources for full war and such a war would not change Iran's posture

• Scott Bessent (reported by Crooke)assertion

  Suggested the Strait of Hormuz may not matter much in a year, hinting at a possible off-ramp

• Netanyahu (reported by Crooke)assertion

  Said Trump is anxious not to see a market crash, revealing the real driver of his calculus

Iran's proactive tanker strikes and market manipulation6:22

Crooke describes Iran shifting from a defensive posture to proactively striking tankers, including two attacks timed minutes before market openings, to demonstrate it will not concede on Hormuz. He notes Iran had already documented the West's own market manipulation (short-selling patterns) and is now applying similar tactics against oil markets.

Rezaei's ultimatum and Netanyahu's infrastructure-attack plan10:57

• Alastair Crookeopinion

  Netanyahu is proposing a gradual, infrastructure-based destruction of Iran rather than a single strike

• General Rezaei (clip)clip

  Hormuz stays closed and no US ships may enter the Persian Gulf until the US withdraws and pays reparations

Regional war widening beyond Iran-US front15:25

Crooke describes escalating fronts across the region: Yemen firing ballistic missiles at Saudi proxy forces and repeatedly striking Saudi Aramco's Jizan refinery, leaving Saudi and UAE oil exports at zero; US and Saudi forces attacking the Iraqi resistance (Hashad); Iran attacking Kurdish forces allegedly being prepared by the US to infiltrate Iranian territory; and Iraqi resistance forces massing near Syria to deter involvement in disarming Hezbollah in Lebanon.

West Bank and Palestine tensions ahead of Israeli elections19:19

Crooke notes the new Iranian security document explicitly names Palestine, not just regional allies, reflecting how the conflict is widening. He speculates that Israel's messianic right — Smotrich and Ben Gvir — may be planning to provoke a war in the West Bank, possibly including a provocation at the Temple Mount, believing this could win them the October elections and enable expelling Palestinians.

War premiums, Saudi finances, and oil supply reality20:33

• Judge Napolitanoopinion

  Tankers cannot realistically obtain insurance to pass through the strait given the instability

• Alastair Crookeassertion

  War premiums are being imposed on Red Sea shipping and Saudi Arabia is financially strained; oil prices are being manipulated but physical supply, not price, is what ultimately constrains the market

Iranian street sentiment fuels hardline shift22:31

• Judge Napolitanoopinion

  It is widely acknowledged the US has lost this war, except perhaps by Trump

• Alastair Crookeassertion

  A revolutionary sea change and street-level resolve in Iran is driving the government toward a harder, more resilient line