Prof. John Mearsheimer : Iran War is the Worst Blunder in U.S. History

The U.S. military has little interest in restarting tit-for-tat attacks because they provide no coercive leverage and use up precious munitions. Heads of the Army, Navy, Air Force, and major combatant commands favor not restarting military operations against Iran.

Assassinating Iranian civilian leaders was immoral, would rally Iranians around the flag, and provoked revenge aimed mainly at Israel but possibly at Americans.

Iran largely controls the Strait, reducing daily transits from ~130 to ~10 by selectively allowing Iraqi and friendly-country ships through. The U.S. has a formidable blockade now but sustaining it long-term is uncertain due to significant wear and tear on the navy.

The U.S. has total or almost total control of the Strait of Hormuz and has swept it of all mines.

It is unclear how London insurers can cover tankers in the strait, but few ships have been sunk, suggesting Iran has not laid many mines.

The risk of passage is relatively small because mine density appears low and ships can try to slip through at night without transponders.

Secondary sanctions will not work because China and Russia will refuse and retaliate, and the UAE cannot comply for fear of Iranian retaliation. The U.S. has done hardly anything beyond sanctioning branches of one Egyptian bank in the UAE, and broader D-Day sanctions are not coming.

The Iran war is the worst U.S. foreign policy disaster because the strategy was irrational, opposed by top advisers, achieved zero objectives, closed the Strait, wrecked alliances and bases, and threatens the economy. The disaster surpasses Iraq and was driven by Trump and Netanyahu.

Israel, especially Netanyahu and the Israel lobby, played a critical role in pushing the U.S. into two wars against Iran by manipulating the American political system.

He used nearly a thousand hours on American TV and intimate knowledge of U.S. leaders to convince the U.S. security establishment to deal with Iran directly.

The war could end by late this year or early next as Russia gains a decisive air advantage, blocks Black Sea ports, and destroys Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

Economic devastation from the air campaign and Russian battlefield gains will make it very difficult for Ukraine to sustain the war.

Key questions for Lavrov include how Russia defines victory, what its territorial goals are beyond the four annexed oblasts, and whether it intends to control the political leadership of the rump Ukrainian state. He is particularly interested in whether Russia seeks Odessa, Kharkiv, or other territories.

Pentagon meetings have included slide decks proposing the use of tactical nuclear weapons against Iranian targets in the current war.

The U.S. is unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Iran because it would not be in U.S. interests. The U.S. is historically ruthless and would use nuclear weapons if it made military sense, citing past firebombing and nuclear strikes.