What New CNN Polling Tells Us About 2 Battleground States

Polling has become harder to do well but cheaper to produce, creating an overload of polls of varying quality. CNN vets external polls using a 16-question methodology checklist before covering them. CNN's own state polls use a mixed-mode outreach starting with voter lists and postcards, with follow-ups via text, email, and phone, and most respondents ultimately take the survey online.

Abdul El-Sayed leads Mike Rogers 47% to 44% among likely voters, a race within the margin of error with no clear leader. The Michigan race is shaping up to be more about candidates' issue positions than the national political environment. Negative views of Trump apparent in national polling persist in Michigan and will hang over the campaign. Fifty percent of likely voters in Michigan see El-Sayed as too liberal. El-Sayed wins Black voters by a wide margin, but almost four in ten Black voters say they could change their minds before Election Day. Democrats in Michigan are much more likely to say they are very motivated to turn out to vote than Republicans.

Troy Jackson leads Susan Collins 48% to 45%, a no-clear-leader race where Maine voters are still getting to know Jackson. Many supporting Jackson are voting against Collins rather than in favor of Jackson himself. People in Maine remain angry about the Dobbs decision. Negativity toward Trump, the economy, and Washington is driving the dynamic of the Maine race. An anti-incumbency mood is widespread across the nation and has persisted for the last few election cycles.

The combination of the national environment and negative views of Collins in a blue-leaning state may catch up with her this time.

Majorities of likely voters in both Michigan and Maine want Democrats to win control of the Senate.

The national environment is favorable for Democrats and may be enough to push Democratic candidates over the finish line.

Among the most motivated voters, preferences tilt heavily toward Democrats, making turnout key to the outcome.