Your Guide to the 2026 Midterms

Midterms are historically a referendum on the incumbent president, and incumbent parties tend to lose seats except in rare cases like 2002 or 1998.

Two thirds of Americans say that Trump's policies have made the economy worse, creating a mountain for Republicans to climb.

Anti-corruption sentiment and frustration with a rigged system are resonating on both the right and left, with figures like Steve Bannon and Jon Ossoff targeting elites and the donor class.

Democrats need three House seats and a net gain of four Senate seats to win majorities, with the Senate map requiring flips in states Trump won by double digits.

Michigan, Maine, and Texas are key Senate races, with Michigan testing a progressive nominee, Maine challenging Susan Collins, and Texas becoming competitive due to Paxton's weaknesses.

Trump's team is putting him on the ballot to mobilize voters despite midterm backlash risks, while running a disqualification strategy to paint Democrats as extreme.

The Trump campaign will put Donald Trump on the ballot for the midterms.

The 2026 midterms will be a contest between anger at the president and the economy versus fear of Democrats being outside the mainstream.